Day 19 of the US-Israel-Iran conflict and the dominant theme today is FOMC. The Federal Reserve delivers its March rate decision tonight at 19:00 GMT (14:00 ET) — a hawkish hold at 4.25–4.50% is near-certain, but the SEP dot plot is the real market mover. If the Fed removes the one projected 2026 rate cut, expect DXY to break toward 106.00, gold to test $4,900, and equities to reprice lower. Brent oil is holding above $100 at $103.39 — Iran warns the Strait of Hormuz "cannot be guaranteed" as the conflict enters its 19th day. US diesel is at $5.04/gallon, up 34% since the conflict began, raising stagflation fears. VIX has eased significantly to 21.65 from its peak of 31.60, but remains above the 20 threshold — options markets are still pricing elevated event risk. Crypto is leading the risk-on bounce: ETH +11%, SOL +7%, BTC +0.38% to $74,202 — the strongest signal of returning risk appetite.
Gold is consolidating below $5,000 at $4,993 (-0.17%) — the 5th straight session of sideways action after the ATH run to $5,212. The $5,000 psychological level is now acting as resistance. The structural bull case remains fully intact: negative real rates, central bank buying, and unresolved geopolitical risk. However, a hawkish FOMC dot plot tonight — particularly if the 2026 rate cut is removed — would be a short-term headwind, potentially pushing gold toward the $4,900 support level. Silver is stabilising at $79.62 (+0.11%) — the gold/silver ratio has widened to approximately 63x, historically elevated, suggesting silver is underperforming on a relative basis. The $83 ceiling for silver remains the key level to watch. A ceasefire resolution would likely trigger a sharp gold pullback but a silver outperformance as industrial demand recovers.
US equities are modestly higher ahead of the FOMC decision: S&P 500 at 6,716 (+0.25%), Nasdaq 100 (NDX) at 24,780 (+0.51%), Dow at 46,993 (+0.10%). The recovery is tentative — markets are in a pre-FOMC holding pattern. The "risk triangle" tonight: elevated bond yields (10Y at 4.28%) + oil margin squeeze (Brent $103) + geopolitical uncertainty = a challenging backdrop for equities. The key question for the dot plot: does the Fed project one 2026 cut (base case) or zero cuts (hawkish surprise)? A zero-cut dot plot would likely reprice S&P 500 toward the 6,600 support level. Powell's press conference at 19:30 GMT will be scrutinised for any language on stagflation risk — the combination of a cooling labour market (NFP -92K in February) and oil-driven inflation is the Fed's "dual-mandate nightmare."
South Africa faces a critical 48-hour window: USD/ZAR at R16.60 (+0.22%) — the rand has weakened materially since the Iran conflict began, driven by the biggest SA bond outflow in 6 years. JTOPI at 109,000 (-0.53%) — the JSE is consolidating with gold miners under pressure as gold retreats below $5,000. Two major catalysts this week: SA CPI (February) on Wednesday 19 March at 10:00 SAST — consensus ~3.1% — and the SARB MPC rate decision on Thursday 20 March at 14:00 SAST. With Brent above $100, the SARB cannot cut rates — a hold at 7.50% is near-certain. The rand's trajectory is tied to three variables: FOMC tonight (hawkish = ZAR weakness), gold price (below $5,000 = miners under pressure), and the Iran conflict resolution (ceasefire = ZAR-positive as oil retreats and risk appetite recovers).
Global equity and commodity markets are closed for the weekend. Crypto markets remain open 24/7. Forex spot trading is closed; futures and some OTC markets may have limited liquidity. The next full edition with live market data will be published on Wednesday 19 March · 12:00 GMT (Post-FOMC).
Key Risk Events This Week: 🔴 FOMC Rate Decision TONIGHT 19:00 GMT — hawkish hold at 4.25–4.50% near-certain; SEP dot plot key; Powell press conference 19:30 GMT. 🛢️ Brent $103.39 — Day 19 of Iran conflict — Strait of Hormuz risk; US diesel $5.04/gallon (+34% since conflict). 🥇 Gold $4,993 (-0.17%) — consolidating below $5,000 ahead of FOMC; hawkish dot plot = $4,900 test. ₿ ETH +11%, SOL +7%, BTC $74,202 — crypto leading risk-on bounce; VIX easing to 21.65. 🇿🇦 SARB MPC Thu 20 Mar 14:00 SAST — hold at 7.50% near-certain; SA CPI Wed 19 Mar 10:00 SAST. 🔴 FOMC TONIGHT 19:00 GMT — Hawkish hold at 4.25–4.50% expected; SEP dot plot key | ⚠️ Iran Day 19: Brent $103.39 above $100; Hormuz risk | 🥇 Gold $4,993 below $5,000 | ₿ ETH +11%, SOL +7%, BTC $74,202 | 🇿🇦 SARB MPC Thu 20 Mar · SA CPI Wed 19 Mar
Bitcoin is recovering strongly at $74,202 (+0.38%) — the crypto complex is leading the risk-on bounce on Day 19 of the Iran conflict, with ETH surging +11% and SOL +7%. VIX easing to 21.65 is the primary driver of the crypto recovery.
Bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict has been notable — it held above $65,000 even at peak VIX 31.60. The $70,000 support level is now the key floor. The FOMC tonight at 19:00 GMT is the next major macro catalyst — a hawkish hold could trigger a risk-off pullback toward $70K; a dovish signal would be strongly BTC-positive toward $80K+.
The Nikkei 225 is the standout outperformer at 55,239 (+2.87%) — JPY weakening to approximately 159/USD is boosting Japanese exporters, and oil stabilisation removes the primary headwind for Japan's energy-intensive economy.
The BoJ rate decision is on Wednesday 19 March — a hold at 0.75% is expected. A rate hike signal would strengthen the yen and pressure Nikkei exporters. The 53,000 support level is holding firmly. FOMC tonight at 19:00 GMT is the next major global catalyst — a hawkish hold would strengthen USD/JPY further, providing an additional tailwind for Nikkei exporters.
Gold is consolidating below the psychological $5,000 level at $4,993 (-0.17%) — the 5th consecutive session of sideways action after the ATH run to $5,212. The $5,000 level is now acting as near-term resistance. The structural bull case remains fully intact: negative real rates, central bank buying, and unresolved geopolitical risk on Day 19 of the Iran conflict.
The key risk tonight is the FOMC dot plot at 19:00 GMT — if the Fed removes the one projected 2026 rate cut, gold could test the $4,900 support level. A hold with unchanged dot plot would be gold-neutral to mildly positive. JP Morgan's year-end 2026 target of $6,300/oz remains in play on the medium-term horizon.
Silver is stabilising at $79.62/oz (+0.11%) — the gold/silver ratio has widened to approximately 63x, historically elevated, suggesting silver is underperforming on a relative basis. The $83 resistance level remains the key ceiling to break for the bull trend to resume.
The Silver Institute's fourth consecutive year of supply deficit in 2026, industrial demand from solar and EV sectors, and the Iran geopolitical premium all support the medium-term case. A ceasefire resolution would likely trigger silver outperformance as industrial demand recovers. FOMC tonight at 19:00 GMT is the next major catalyst — a hawkish hold could push silver toward the $76 support level.
Brent crude is holding above the $100 psychological level at $103.39 (-0.03%) on Day 19 of the Iran conflict. Iran has warned that the Strait of Hormuz "cannot be guaranteed" — approximately 20% of global oil supply transits this chokepoint. US diesel is at $5.04/gallon, up 34% since the conflict began.
The IEA is proposing strategic reserve releases to cool prices. Brent at $103.39 is still +46% above pre-conflict levels ($71 Brent on 27 Feb). A hawkish FOMC tonight would strengthen the USD and provide a mild headwind for oil. A ceasefire resolution remains the primary downside risk — Brent could fall to $75–$80 on a confirmed ceasefire.
EUR/USD is recovering slightly to 1.1539 (+0.35%) ahead of the FOMC decision tonight. The pair remains well above the 1.1400 structural support — EUR resilience intact despite the Iran conflict headwind.
The key risk tonight is the FOMC dot plot — a hawkish hold (removing the 2026 rate cut) could push DXY toward 106.00 and pressure EUR/USD below 1.1400. The ECB rate cut path may also be delayed by oil-driven inflation. The broader EUR/USD uptrend from the 2025 lows remains intact — the pair is still +~4% year-to-date. FOMC tonight 19:00 GMT is the next major catalyst.
The rand is under sustained pressure at R16.60/USD (+0.22%) — the Iran war has triggered the biggest SA bond outflow in 6 years. Brent above $100 is raising SA's import bill and inflation risk, making a SARB rate cut impossible in the near term.
Two major catalysts this week: SA CPI (Feb) on Wednesday 19 March at 10:00 SAST (consensus ~3.1%) and the SARB MPC on Thursday 20 March at 14:00 SAST — hold at 7.50% near-certain. A hawkish FOMC tonight would strengthen the USD and push USD/ZAR toward R17.00. A ceasefire resolution remains the primary ZAR-positive catalyst.
SARB MPC Decision Delivered
See the USD/ZAR analysis above for market reaction.
The S&P 500 is modestly higher at 6,716 (+0.25%) — a tentative pre-FOMC recovery. VIX has eased to 21.65 from its peak of 31.60, reflecting reduced fear ahead of the Fed decision. The recovery is fragile — markets are in a pre-FOMC holding pattern.
The "risk triangle" tonight: elevated bond yields (10Y at 4.28%) + oil margin squeeze (Brent $103) + geopolitical uncertainty = challenging backdrop. The key question is the SEP dot plot — if the Fed removes the one projected 2026 rate cut, S&P 500 could retest the 6,600 support level. FOMC tonight 19:00 GMT + Powell press conference 19:30 GMT.
The Hang Seng Index is recovering to 26,025 (+0.61%) — China's relative insulation from the Iran conflict and ongoing PBOC stimulus expectations continue to provide a structural tailwind. The 25,000 support level is holding firmly.
The China tech recovery narrative (DeepSeek AI) continues to attract inflows. The 27,000 resistance level is the next medium-term target — a break above would signal a resumption of the uptrend. Tariff reprieve for China goods remains a positive backdrop. FOMC tonight at 19:00 GMT is the next major global catalyst.
The DAX is recovering to 23,896 (+0.70%) — European markets are stabilising on Day 19 of the Iran conflict. Germany's €500B infrastructure fund and ECB rate cut prospects remain powerful medium-term tailwinds. The 23,200 support level is holding.
The all-time high of 25,641 is now 1,745 points (7.3%) away — achievable if the Iran conflict de-escalates. FOMC tonight at 19:00 GMT is the next major global catalyst — a hawkish signal would strengthen the USD and provide a headwind for European equities via reduced global risk appetite. ECB rate cuts expected H2 2026 = structural support.
The Nasdaq 100 is recovering to 24,780 (+0.51%) — technology stocks are bouncing ahead of the FOMC decision. ETH +11% and SOL +7% are leading the broader risk-on recovery in growth assets. The 200-day EMA at ~24,039 is acting as support.
The key risk tonight is the FOMC dot plot — a hawkish hold (removing the 2026 rate cut) would be a structural headwind for high-multiple tech via higher discount rates. A hold with unchanged dot plot would be NDX-neutral to mildly positive. FOMC tonight 19:00 GMT + Powell press conference 19:30 GMT.
The Dow is flat at 46,993 (+0.10%) — industrials and consumer discretionary are facing a margin squeeze from $5.04/gallon diesel (+34% since the Iran conflict began). The 10Y yield at 4.28% is a headwind for rate-sensitive sectors.
The Dow is approximately 3,007 points below the key 50,000 milestone. The 46,500 support level is the key floor to watch. FOMC tonight at 19:00 GMT is the next major catalyst — a hawkish hold would keep yields elevated and pressure the Dow toward 46,500. A ceasefire resolution would trigger a sharp relief rally back toward 50,000 as oil retreats and margins recover.
The FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index is cautious at 109,000 (-0.53%) — the Iran war has triggered the biggest SA bond outflow in 6 years. Gold miners are under pressure as gold retreats below $5,000, and the rand has weakened to R16.60.
Two major domestic catalysts this week: SA CPI (Feb) on Wednesday 19 March at 10:00 SAST (consensus ~3.1%) and the SARB MPC on Thursday 20 March at 14:00 SAST — hold at 7.50% near-certain with Brent above $100. A ceasefire resolution would be strongly JSE-positive via gold miner re-rating and rand appreciation. The 107,000 support level is the key structural floor.
Economic Calendar · 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2026
Live data on Trading Economics ↗| Date | Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 27 Feb | 13:30 GMT | US | PPI MoM (Jan) — ACTUAL: +0.5% 🔥 HOT | +0.3% | +0.5% | High |
| Fri 27 Feb | 13:30 GMT | US | Core PPI MoM (Jan) — ACTUAL: +0.7% 🔥 HOT | +0.3% | +0.7% | High |
| Sun 1 Mar | TBC | OPEC | OPEC+ Meeting — 206K bpd hike from April ✓ | Resume output hikes | — | High |
| Mon 2 Mar | 15:00 GMT | US | ISM Manufacturing (Feb) — ACTUAL: 50.3 (Miss) | 51.8 | 52.6 | High |
| Fri 6 Mar | 13:30 GMT | US | Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb) — ACTUAL: -92K 🔥 SHOCK | +60,000 | +130,000 | High |
| Fri 6 Mar | 13:30 GMT | US | Unemployment Rate (Feb) — ACTUAL: 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | High |
| Mon 9 Mar | Overnight | US | 🚨 WTI breaks $100 for first time since 2023 | Geopolitical escalation | — | High |
| Wed 11 Mar | 13:30 GMT | US | ✅ US CPI (February) — ACTUAL: +2.4% YoY (In Line) | +2.4% YoY | +2.4% YoY | High |
| Wed 11 Mar | 13:30 GMT | US | ✅ Core CPI (February) — ACTUAL: +2.6% YoY (In Line) | +2.6% YoY | +2.6% YoY | High |
| Tue 18 Mar | 19:00 GMT | US | 🔴 FOMC Rate Decision + SEP Dot Plot | Hold at 4.25–4.50% | 4.25–4.50% | High |
| Tue 18 Mar | 19:30 GMT | US | 🔴 Powell Press Conference | Hawkish hold expected | — | High |
| Wed 19 Mar | TBC | JP | Bank of Japan Rate Decision | Hold at 0.75% | 0.50% | High |
| Wed 19 Mar | 10:00 SAST | ZA | SA CPI (February) | ~3.1% | 3.2% | Medium |
| Thu 20 Mar | 14:00 SAST | ZA | 🔴 SARB MPC Rate Decision | Hold at 7.50% | 7.50% | High |